Ivica Milevski, Slavoljub Dragićević


Landslides are natural disasters that have an impact in many areas around the world including the territory of the Republic of Macedonia. In this country, about 300 large landslides are registered, most of which cause serious damage to the infrastructure almost every year. In that sense, the mapping of sites that are susceptible to landslides is essential for the management of these areas. This is a crucial step to prevent landslides in places where this could be expected or to mini-mize its damages. Therefore, a heuristic approach of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) combined with Geographic In-formation System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) is used in this work for the assessment of potential landslide areas in the Republic of Macedonia. In the procedure, 6 triggering factors indicating a strong influence on the landslide activity are selected, including lithology, slope angle, land cover, terrain curvature, distance from rivers and distance from roads. Through the procedure, expert-based weight of these factors is made. The LS model is produced with the summing up of the factor layers in the form of harmonized raster grids. Finally, the values of the grid model are classified according to the quantiles and natural breaks scheme. The produced maps show acceptable results confirmed by validation methods and ROC analysis, indicating that about 40% of the country area is under high and very high landslide susceptibility. This ap-proach can be further improved if combined with statistical methods in the form of a hybrid model.


Landslide susceptibility; landslide hazard zonation; AHP; ROC; AUC

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