LANDSLIDES SUSCEPTIBILITY ZONATION OF THE TERRITORY OF NORTH MACEDONIA USING ANALYTICAL HIERARCHY PROCESS APPROACH

Ivica Milevski, Slavoljub Dragićević

Abstract


Landslides are natural disasters that have an impact in many areas around the world including the territory of the Republic of Macedonia. In this country, about 300 large landslides are registered, most of which cause serious damage to the infrastructure almost every year. In that sense, the mapping of sites that are susceptible to landslides is essential for the management of these areas. This is a crucial step to prevent landslides in places where this could be expected or to mini-mize its damages. Therefore, a heuristic approach of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) combined with Geographic In-formation System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) is used in this work for the assessment of potential landslide areas in the Republic of Macedonia. In the procedure, 6 triggering factors indicating a strong influence on the landslide activity are selected, including lithology, slope angle, land cover, terrain curvature, distance from rivers and distance from roads. Through the procedure, expert-based weight of these factors is made. The LS model is produced with the summing up of the factor layers in the form of harmonized raster grids. Finally, the values of the grid model are classified according to the quantiles and natural breaks scheme. The produced maps show acceptable results confirmed by validation methods and ROC analysis, indicating that about 40% of the country area is under high and very high landslide susceptibility. This ap-proach can be further improved if combined with statistical methods in the form of a hybrid model.

Keywords


Landslide susceptibility; landslide hazard zonation; AHP; ROC; AUC

Full Text:

PDF

References


D. Kolčakovski, I. Milevski, Recent Landform Evolution in Macedonia. In Recent Landform Evolution. The Carpatho-Balkan-Dinaric Region., Loczy D., Stankoviansky M., K. A., Ed.; Springer (2012), pp. 413–442.

I. Milevski, S. Dragicevic, GIS-Based Landslide Susceptibility Modelling of the Territory of the Republic of Macedonia. 7th International Conference on Cartography and GIS, Sozopol, (2018), pp. 82–91.

D. J. Varnes, Landslide hazard zonation: a review of principles and practice; United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization: Paris, 1984, pp. 1–63.

M. Crozier, Landslides: causes, consequences and environment; Croom Helm: London, 1986; p 252.

R. Soeters, C. J. van Westen, Slope instability recognition, analysis, and zonation. In A. K. Turner, & R. L. Schuster (Eds.), Landslides, investigation and mitigation ( Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Special Report; 247) Washington D.C., USA, (1996), pp. 129–177.

F. Guzzetti, A. Carrara, M. Cardinali, P. Reichenbach, Landslide hazard evaluation: A review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy. Geomorphology, 31 (1–4) (1999), pp. 181–216.

L. Luzi, F. Pergalani, Slope instability in static and dynamic conditions for urban planning: The 'Oltre Po Pavese' case history (Regione Lombardia - Italy). Natural Hazards 20 (1), (1999), pp. 57–82.

M. J. Crozier, T. Glade, Landslide Hazard and Risk: Issues, Concepts and Approach. In Landslide Hazard and Risk, 2012, pp. 1–39.

F. Guzzetti, P. Reichenbach, F. Ardizzone, M. Cardinali, M. Galli, Estimating the quality of landslide susceptibility models. Geomorphology 81 (1-2), (2006), pp. 166–184.

E. E. Brabb, E. H. Pampeyan, Preliminary map of landslide deposits in San Mateo County, California. US Geological Survey Miscellaneous Field Studies, 1972, Map MF-360, scale 1:62.500 (reprinted in 1978)

C. J. van Westen, N. Rengers, M. Terlien, R. Soeters, Prediction of the occurrence of slope instability phenomenal through GIS-based hazard zonation. Geologische Rundschau, Vol. 86 (1997), pp. 404–414. https://doi.org/10.1007/s005310050149

C. Gokceoglu, H. Sonmez, H.A. Nefeslioglu, T.Y. Duman, T. Can, The 17 March 2005 Kuzululandslide (Sivas, Turkey) and landslide-susceptibility map of its near vicinity. Engineering Geology 81 (2005), pp. 65–83.

C. J. van Westen, GIS in landslide hazard zonation: a review, with examples from the Andes of Colombia. In Mountain environments & geographic information systems; In M. F. Price, &. D. I. H., Ed.; Taylor & Francis: London, 1994, pp. 135–166.

A. Carrara, M. Cardinali, F. Guzzetti, P. Reichenbach, GIS Technology in Mapping Landslide Hazard. In Geographical Information Systems in Assessing Natural Hazards. Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, vol 5. Springer, 1995; pp. 135–175.

P. Aleotti, R. Chowdhury, Landslide hazard assessment: Summary review and new perspectives. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment 58 (1), (1999), pp. 21–44.

L. Cascini, Applicability of landslide susceptibility and hazard zoning at different scales. Engineering Geology 102 (3–4), (2008), pp. 164–177.

J. D. Jiménez-Perálvarez, C. Irigaray, R. El Hamdouni, J. Chacón, Building models for automatic landslide-susceptibility analysis, mapping and validation in ArcGIS. Natural Hazards, 50-3 (2009); pp. 571–590.

I. Milevski, B. Markoski, S. Gorin, M. Jovanovski, Application of Remote Sensing And GIS in Detection of Potential Landslide Areas. International Symposium Geography and Sustainable Development, Ohrid, 2009, pp. 453–463.

I. Milevski, S. Dragicevic, A. Georgievska, GIS and RS-based modelling of potential natural hazard areas in Pehchevo municipality, Republic of Macedonia. Zbornik radova Geografskog instituta Jovan Cvijic, SANU, 63–3 (2013), pp. 95–107.

E. Ivanova, I. Milevski, Landslide Susceptibility Mapping of the Territory of Municipalities Pehchevo and Simitli by Means of GIS Modeling. Proceedings from the Conference Space, Ecology, Safety SES-2013, Sofia, 2014; pp. 434–443.

I. Milevski, E. Ivanova, GIS- and RS-based modelling of potential natural hazard areas in mountains. Case study: Vlahina mountain. In Sustainable Mountain Regions: Challenges and Perspectives in Southeastern Europe; Koulov B., Z. G., Ed.; Springer: Cham, 2016, pp. 191-204.

I. Milevski, S. Dragicevic, I. Radevski, GIS and Remote Sensing based natural hazard modelling of Kriva River catchment, Republic of Macedonia. Zeitschrift fur Geomorphologie 61 (Supplementary issue 2), (2017), pp. 213–228.

I. Peševski, Landslide susceptibility modeling using GIS technology; PhD dissertation-manuscript, Ss. Cyril and Methodius, Skopje, (2015).

H. Proske, C. Bauer, Indicative hazard maps for landslides in Styria; Austria. Acta Geobalcanica 2 (2), (2016), pp. 93–101.

T. L. Saaty, The Analytical Hierarchy Process, McGraw Hill, New York, 1980, pp. 1–287.

A. Ishizaka, A. Labib, Review of the main developments in the analytic hierarchy process, Expert Syst, Appl, 38, (2011), pp. 14336–14345.

DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2011.04.143.

W. Ho, Integrated analytic hierarchy process and its applications – A literature review, Eur. J. Oper. Res., 186, (2008), DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2007.01.004. pp. 211–228.

M. Komac, Landslide susceptibility model using the Analytical Hierarchy Process method and mul-tivariate statistics in perialpine Slovenia. Geomor-phology 74, (2006), pp. 17–28.

A. Yalcin, S. Reis, A. C. Aydinoglu, T. Yomralioglu, A GIS-based comparative study of frequency ratio, analytical hierarchy process, bivariate statistics and logistics regression methods for landslide susceptibility mapping in Trabzon, NE Turkey. Catena 85 (3) (2011), pp. 274–287.

T. L. Saaty, L. G. Vargas, Models, Methods, Con-cepts, and Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process. 1st ed. Kluwer Academic, Boston, 2001, pp. 1–333.

L. Donati, M. C. Turrini, An objective method to rank the importance of the factors predisposing to landslides with the GIS methodology: Application to an area of the Apennines (Valnerina; Perugia, Italy). Engineering Geology 63 (3–4)(2002), pp. 277–289.

B. Komac, M. Zorn, Statistical landslide suscepti-bility modeling on a national scale: the example of Slovenia. Revue Roumaine de Géographie 53–2 (2009), pp. 179–195.

K. Terzaghi, Mechanisms of landslides. In Application of Geology to Engineering Practice; Paige, S., Ed.; American Geological Society, (1950), pp. 83–124.

C. Chalkias, M. Ferentinou, C. Polykretis, GIS-Based Landslide Susceptibility Mapping on the Peloponnese Peninsula, Greece. Geosciences 4 (3), (2014), pp. 176–190.

A. Jaafari, A. Najafi, H. R. Pourghasemi, J. Rezaeian, A. Sattarian, GIS-based frequency ratio and index of entropy models for landslide susceptibility assessment in the Caspian forest, northern Iran. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 11 (4) (2014), pp. 909-926.

Y. Tanaka, Differences of Landslide Occurrences Behavior Due to Slope Aspects in the Amehata River Basin. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting, 2005.

K. D. Goepel, Implementing the Analytic Hierar-chy Process as a Standard Method for Multi-Criteria Decision Making In Corporate Enterprises – A New AHP Excel Template with Multiple In-puts, Proceedings of the International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Kuala Lumpur 2013.

M. Jovanovski, I. Milevski, J. B. Papić, I. Peševski, B. Markoski, Landslides in the Republic of Macedonia triggered by extreme events in 2010. In Geomorphological Impacts of Extreme Weather: Case Studies From Central and Eastern Europe, Geomorphol ed.; Denes Loczy, Ed.; Springer, (2013), pp. 265–280.

G. F. Jenks, Optimal data classification for choropleth maps; Dept. Geography, Univ. Kansas: Kansas, 1977, pp. 1–24.

L. Stegna, F. Csillag, Statistical determination of class intervals for maps. The Cartographic Journal 24 (2) (1987), pp. 142–146.

T. Fawcett, An introduction to ROC analysis. Pattern Recognition Letters 27 (8), (2006), pp. 861–874.

H. R. Pourghasemi, B. Pradhan, C. Gokceoglu, D. K. Moezzi, Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using a Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation Model at Haraz Watershed, Iran. B. Pradhan and M. Buchroithner (eds.), Terrigenous Mass Movements, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2012, DOI:10.1007/978-3-642-25495-6_2, pp. 23–49

B. Singh, R. K. Goel, Landslide hazard zonation. In Rock Mass Classification, 1st ed.; Elsevier Science, 1999, pp. 184–199.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20903/csnmbs.masa.2019.40.1.136

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.



Contact details

Bul. Krste Misirkov br.2
1000 Skopje, Republic of Macedonia
Tel. ++389 2 3235-400
cell:++389 71 385-106
mail: manu@manu.edu.mk
About the journal

CSNMBS is a part of the MASA Contribution series. Published by the Section Natural, Mathematical and Biotechnical Sciences.
About this site

Maintained by the Researh center for Materials and Enviroment - MANU/MASA.
Site (including the theme) set, adapted by MASA - CSIT.